History

We often hear the phrase, "History repeats itself," and we hear it or say it, nod our heads in rote agreement, and move on without giving it much more thought than that. But there is more to it than that, I think, that while we can say that History repeats and we learn from the lessons of history, we don't pay as much attention to how prophetic and instructive those lessons really are. Sure, we talk about it and we look at current events with some trepidation but we all sit back and watch it play out. Should we do something about it? Almost certainly, we should. Can we do anything about it? Perhaps not so much. As a result, we look on in horror as the world goes south on us.

Many years ago, my old man bought a set of history books by Will and Ariel Durant call\ed, The Story of Civilization. Since his passing in 2001, this set disappeared somewhere, probably sold by my mom to help pay for his funeral. My dad and I didn't have a stellar relationship and my relationship with my mom is, sadly, not any better so I have no idea.

But my dad liked to read and he instilled a love of reading into me and most of my siblings. For that, I am genuinely grateful to him, particularly his love of history which I've inherited, somehow. I'm no great historian by any stretch of the imagination but I enjoy my incidental contact with historical content including documentaries, Google images and now, The Story of Civilization.

Anyhoo, I found a full set of The Story of Civilization and I'm about 600 pages into the first of the eleven volumes.

The most significant recurring theme in this first book, Our Oriental Heritage, is how civilizations rise and fall and more importantly, WHY they fall. Obviously, Durant's is not the only theory about why a civilization will fail. Within the last few years, I read a striking book called, Why Nations Fail by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson. Great book where they assert that ultimately, it is the ownership of private property that preserves nations. They make a lot of valid points, however, it seems they are only covering a part of the puzzle.

Durant, however, gets closer to the mark. He says, "It is almost a law of history that the same wealth that generates a civilization announces it's decay." He makes other statements on this theme throughout the book stating that when a civilization sits in the lap of luxury long enough, it will decay.

The above quote was in the context of the fall of Babylon which at one point ruled a massive empire. They were hungry, they conquered, they ruled then became wealthy and soft and were destroyed by a more hungry group of Kassite tribes.

Later, speaking of the fall of the Persian empire, Durant says, "The decline of Persia anticipated almost in detail the decline of Rome: immorality and degeneration among the people accompanied violence and negligence on the throne." When Alexander threatened, the Persians amassed an army over ten times the size of Alexander's but as soft as they were, they were annihilated. Not only did they have no taste for war, they had even lost their skill. Other factors played a part, but in the end analysis, they had neglected their military and had lost their strength as a result.

When he discusses how India was conquered in the North by invading Muslims, Durant says, "The bitter lesson...is that eternal vigilance is the price of civilization. A nation must love peace, but keep its powder dry." He goes on to say, "It is in the nature of governments to degenerate; for power...poisons every hand that touches it."

My interpretation of it is that men simply don't change. Even as enlightened as we think we have become, we don't change. We're simply too arrogant.

As a result, history as a repetitive force predicts what is going to happen in the future. It is the truly difficult struggle for us to see that we, the United States of America, are in that very position right now. We are rich. More rich than any other nation in the world by far and away. In 2019, the GDP of the U.S was 40% higher than that of China, the next highest independent country (I exclude the EU because they are a conglomeration of countries, however, as a whole, they still fall well below the U.S.). The gap between China and the U.S. narrowed in 2021 and will likely continue to close.

We look at the softness of our military, seeing that every level of the command structure is losing its ability to create strategy and conduct campaigns. We have scaled back on our economic commitment to military hardware, personnel and training. We cannot recruit personnel who have "sand" but rather, we recruit those who have no sense of their own identity and then we fail to train them with an identity that is focused on a desire to win in conflict. All too many new recruits are in it for the cushy way of life that doesn't force them to make decisions for themselves but when the going gets tough and the U.S. sends a group out to fight in a conflict, the weeping and wailing is deafening.

Even our very population is soft, indulgent and whiny. Children are not raised by their parents with strong foundations, strong morals or strong commitments and motivations to do well and accomplish good things. No, parents raise their kids to expect handouts, raise them as coddled monsters and allow them to lose their very identities and purpose. It's tragic and it's having an adverse affect on the country as a whole.

Frank Herbert wrote the Dune series where he describes a people grown soft who were overtaken and defeated by a hardened tribe accustomed to living in a harsh environment. They were strong and conditioned by the discipline of their environment to take over the indulgent government. In another of his books, The Dosadi Experiment, he describes a race of people who were forced into a harsh environment. That harshness toughened them up and again, they escaped and exterminated their captors who were soft and were incapable of mounting any kind of protection of themselves. Granted, Herbert was writing science fiction but the underlying principle is that a people gone soft will be destroyed or will be ruled by a hungry, hardened people.

The list of these kinds of stories, real and fictional, is endless and the focus of real events in the histories of the peoples and civilizations of our own world are chilling. As a society, we are blind. As individuals, what can we do? Perhaps that is and has been discussed at length in many instances.

Others have said it and I repeat it: Our time is near. An old Mormon axiom says, "If ye are prepared, ye shall not fear." I think that's probably an appropriate way to look at as individuals. As a society, I doubt we will return to the preparedness that Reagan and many others have espoused over the decades of the life of this country. But as individuals, again, we must take steps to do what it takes to preserve ourselves and our loved ones and to be ready when the time is upon us.

I don't wish to create fear. I don't want to be afraid. I still have a small degree of hope that our system of recycling representatives may still have a positive effect. And yet, I doubt. More every day, I doubt and I lose confidence in all but a few of my fellow human beings.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong but History has prophesied that it will be.

--Wag--